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新疆棉花物候期对气候变化的响应及敏感性分析

来源：花匠小妙招时间：2024-11-06 19:27

摘要：

为了研究气候变化背景下棉花物候的变化规律,对棉花生长模型COSIM进行参数调校,验证实现本地化,利用数理统计及作物模型模拟的方法,分析了棉花物候期对气候变化的响应及其敏感性。结果表明：1980—2019年,新疆棉区棉花出苗期、现蕾期、开花期分别提前0.5~7.0 d/10a、0.1~5.8 d/10a、0.3~3.9 d/10a,吐絮期推迟0.1~4.7 d/10a。COSIM模型模拟棉花物候变化趋势结果与实际较一致,出苗期、现蕾期、开花期、吐絮期实际值与模拟值的RMSE分别为0.9、0.7、0.6、0.7天。以1981—2010年气候条件为基准,增温0.5℃、1℃、1.5℃、2℃,各棉区棉花出苗期、现蕾期、开花期和吐絮期分别提前0~2天、1~9天、2~12天和3~31天,营养生长、生殖生长分别缩短0~6天、2~22天。在气候变暖的趋势下,通过选择生育期较长的品种、调整播期等措施,可充分利用热量资源,实现棉花优质高产。

关键词: 棉花, 气候变化, 物候, COSIM模型, 新疆

Abstract:

In order to investigate the change rule of cotton phenology under the background of climate change, the parameters of the cotton growth model COSIM were adjusted and verified to achieve localization. Using mathematical statistics and crop model simulation methods, the response and sensitivity of cotton phenological periods to climate change were analyzed. The results showed that from 1980 to 2019, the date of emergence, budding and flowering of cotton in Xinjiang were earlier by 0.5-7.0 d/10a, 0.1-5.8 d/10a, and 0.3-3.9 d/10a, respectively, and the date of boll opening was delayed by 0.1-4.7 d/10a. COSIM was used to simulate phenological changes of cotton, and the results were consistent with the actual changes. The RMSE of the actual and simulated values of the date of emergence, budding, flowering and boll opening was 0.9 d, 0.7 d, 0.6 d and 0.7 d, respectively. Under warmer climate (simulated warming 0.5℃, 1℃, 1.5℃ and 2℃ compared with the base climate condition of 1981—2010), the rate of growth and development of cotton increased and each phenological period became earlier. The date of emergence, budding, flowering and boll opening were earlier by 0-2 d, 1-9 d, 2-12 d and 3-31 d, respectively; the vegetative growth stage and reproductive growth stage were shortened by 0-6 d and 2-22 d, respectively. Therefore, through variety selection and technology adjustment, climate warming can give more potential productivity to cotton by utilizing the advantage of heat and avoiding disaster risk in the key phenological periods, in order to achieve high yield and efficiency of cotton production.

Key words: cotton, climate change, phenology, COSIM model, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

S562