首页分享山东菏泽牡丹的气候适宜性分析

山东菏泽牡丹的气候适宜性分析

来源：花匠小妙招时间：2025-11-15 00:06

摘要： 基于2001—2018年山东菏泽气象站逐日气象资料，结合该地区牡丹萌芽期、现蕾期和开花期3个主要生育期的气象指标，应用模糊数学方法，建立日时间尺度的温度、降水和日照适宜度模型，并采用几何平均方法建立牡丹综合气候适宜度模型。结果表明：（1）牡丹的综合气候适宜度随发育期而变化，表现为开花期＞现蕾期＞萌芽期，数值均在0.5左右；（2）牡丹的平均温度适宜度、降水适宜度、日照适宜度分别为0.78、0.24、0.85，温度和日照均能满足牡丹适宜生长的需要，降水是影响牡丹生长气候适宜的关键气象因素；（3）2001年以来，牡丹的温度适宜度和降水适宜度呈上升趋势，日照适宜度呈下降趋势，综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势。总体上，气候变化对牡丹主要生长期无明显的负效应。

关键词: 气候适宜性, 模型, 模糊数学法, 牡丹, 菏泽

Abstract: Based on meteorological index of sprouting stage, squaring stage, flowering stage of peony and daily meteorological data from 2001 to 2018 in Heze, three climatic suitability degrees of temperature, precipitation and sunshine were established at daily time scale by using the fuzzy mathematics method, and a comprehensive climate suitability model was established with the geometric average method. The results are as follows: (1) The climate suitability of peony changed with developmental period，the highest climate suitability was at flowering stage, and the lowest was at sprouting stage, the values were all around 0.5. (2) The mean value of climate suitability including temperature, precipitation and sunshine was 0.78, 0.24, 0.85, respectively, both temperature and sunshine could meet the need of peony growth, precipitation was a key meteorological factor affecting the climate suitability of peony. (3) Impacted by climate change, there were obvious inter-annual variations of peony climate suitability, with rising trend of temperature, precipitation and comprehensive climate suitability, while sunshine suitability presented decline trend. Overall, there was no significant negative effect of climate change on the main growth period of peony.

Key words: climatic suitability, model, fuzzy mathematical method, peony, Heze

中图分类号:

P49