首页分享牯岭凤仙花及其传粉昆虫在中国的潜在分布区域分析

牯岭凤仙花及其传粉昆虫在中国的潜在分布区域分析

来源：花匠小妙招时间：2025-01-17 14:59

摘要：

牯岭凤仙花(Impatiens davidii)为中国特有的珍稀观赏花卉, 野生种群较小, 同时依赖特殊的传粉者三条熊蜂(Bombus trifasciatus)授粉, 为特化传粉植物, 传粉资源为限制其种群扩散的重要因素。该研究基于63条牯岭凤仙花分布数据、54条三条熊蜂分布数据、19个环境气候因子, 运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟预测当前及未来(2050s、2070s) 3种气候代表性浓度路径情景RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5下牯岭凤仙花和三条熊蜂的潜在分布区域。结果表明: 影响牯岭凤仙花分布的主要环境因子为最暖季度降水量。当前气候条件下, 牯岭凤仙花与三条熊蜂具有较高的地理分布重合度、生态位宽度、生态位重合度, 共同分布区域占比高达99.09%, 较大程度上保证了牯岭凤仙花的传粉资源; 在未来3种气候情景下, 牯岭凤仙花分布区域向东北、华北扩张, 适生面积增加6.60-22.19万km2; 三条熊蜂适生区整体略微北移, 适生面积增加4.48-15.50万km2; 两者共同分布区域占牯岭凤仙花适生区域比例降低1.40%-9.00%, 表明未来牯岭凤仙花适生区可能受到气候变化和传粉资源缺失共同影响。

关键词: 牯岭凤仙花, 三条熊蜂, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 传粉

Abstract:

Aims Impatiens davidii, a rare ornamental flower endemic to China, had a small wild population and depended on pollination of Bombus trifasciatus. As I. davidii has a specialized pollination system, pollination resources were one of the important factors limiting its population diffusion.

Methods In this study, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the potential distribution area of the two species based on 63 distribution records of I. davidii, 54 distribution records of B. trifasciatus, and 19 climatic factors. The potential distribution of the two species under three climate representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were predicted for the future (2050s, 2070s).

Important findings The results showed that the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of I. davidii was precipitation of warmest quarter. Under the current climate conditions, the range overlap, niche overlap, and niche breadth of two species were higher. Approximately 99.09% of the suitable areas of I. davidiiwas overlapped with B. trifasciatus, which ensured the pollination resources to a large extent. Under the three future climate scenarios, the distribution area of I. davidii will expand to northeast and north China, and the suitable habitat area will increase by 66 000-221 900 km2. The suitable habitat area of B. trifasciatus moved northward slightly, and increased by 44 800-155 000 km2. The proportion of suitable habitat areas of I. davidii overlapped with B. trifasciatus decreased by 1.40%-9.00%, indicating that the suitable area of I. davidii might be affected by climate change and lack of pollination resources in the future.

Key words: Impatiens davidii, Bombus trifasciatus, climate change, MaxEnt model, pollination